Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f07…fbde world 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,030 (-5%) realized −$1,083 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%28W / 60L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$3,177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$147
7 days+$1,226
14 days+$434
30 days+$437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$1,880
other 21% +$1,194
tech 9% −$624
crypto 6% −$214
politics 5% −$32
economics 4% +$96
sports 0% −$63
finance 0% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +17.3% +6.1% 50% 50% +28.5%
≤30d 9 -18.9% -26.6% 33% 33% -2.4%
≤90d 29 -25.1% -32.2% 41% 34% -9.4%
all 88 -32.1% -38.6% 32% 26% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.6% 26% -19.2%
10% -44.5% 16% -26.9%
15% -49.8% 10% -34.0%
20% -54.7% 9% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -41% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$64 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$3,177
Realized−$1,083
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses28 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)88 / 91
History coverage242d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 60¢ 57¢ $1,689 $1,615 −$73 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 42¢ 46¢ $1,411 $1,535 +$125 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 90¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 25 $597 −$147 -25%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 21 $2,318 +$1,373 +59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $575 +$91 +16%
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,618 −$831 -51%
Kash Patel out by December 31? Jun 05 $110 +$49 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $174 −$6 -3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $127 −$20 -16%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $198 −$20 -10%
Kash Patel out by May 31? May 03 $210 +$26 +12%
Kash Patel out by April 30? Apr 29 $256 +$42 +17%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 16 $66 −$42 -63%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $58 +$9 +16%
Will Trump say "N Word" in April? Apr 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 12 $292 −$10 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 05 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 05 $41 +$39 +96%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 05 $19 +$15 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 05 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 05 $161 +$46 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 05 $194 +$6 +3%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $789 −$462 -59%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 03 $520 +$26 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Mar 30 $144 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 26 $787 −$168 -21%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Mar 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 05 $47 $0 -0%
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? Feb 03 $42 −$27 -64%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Feb 03 $13 +$3 +22%
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? Feb 03 $8 +$8 +99%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? Feb 02 $19 +$3 +14%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Feb 02 $14 +$5 +34%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Feb 01 $78 +$21 +27%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $85 +$14 +16%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $120 −$28 -23%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $566 +$49 +9%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $18 −$18 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 29 $120 −$104 -87%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $30 +$45 +150%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jan 27 $1 +$1 +83%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jan 26 $43 −$3 -8%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 26 $187 −$79 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 57¢ $224 3m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 57¢ $4 3m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 65¢ $260 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 60¢ $198 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $3 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $10 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $236 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 9¢ $450 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $26 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 54¢ $443 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $103 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $26 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $300 3d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $111 4d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $89 5d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 5d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $60 6d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 6d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $190 6d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $400 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $243 6d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $242 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 73¢ $263 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $108 6d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $377 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $31 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $92 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,177.40 · official $3,177.40 (match) · 471 history records