Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9F 0x9f06…6203 other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 611d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$630 (-12%) realized −$433 · open −$197
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%16W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$1,549now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$241
7 days+$241
14 days+$241
30 days+$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$27
crypto 21% −$290
politics 18% −$187
economics 2% −$1
sports 2% −$99
tech 1% −$60
culture 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +33.7%
≤30d 1 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +33.7%
≤90d 2 -26.1% -33.1% 50% 50% +17.8%
all 57 -30.0% -36.6% 28% 25% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.6% 25% -22.3%
10% -42.7% 25% -29.8%
15% -48.2% 25% -36.5%
20% -53.3% 21% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -67% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$44 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

611d coverage
Net worth$1,549
Realized−$433
Unrealized−$197
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses16 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)57 / 62
History coverage611d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 58¢ 50¢ $1,270 $1,115 −$155 (-12%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $300 $262 −$38 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $107 $106 −$1 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $36 −$4 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 +$241 +48%
NBA Playoffs: Knicks vs. Hawks Total Games O/U 5.5 Apr 21 $69 −$68 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 23 $20 −$20 -100%
OpenAI browser by October 31? Oct 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? Oct 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AS Monaco advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champion Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21? Mar 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? Mar 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Feb 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Feb 18 $63 +$2 +3%
Will Elon tweet 875-899 times Feb 7-14? Feb 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum above $2,700 on February 14? Feb 13 $29 +$24 +82%
Kanye banned on X by Monday? Feb 10 $91 +$8 +9%
Will Donald Trump issue 100 or more executive orders in his first week Feb 04 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $50 +$41 +82%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the Australian Open? Jan 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 27-Jan 3? Jan 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 27-Jan 3? Jan 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 27-Jan 3? Jan 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 20-27? Jan 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 20-27? Jan 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 20-27? Jan 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum above $3,900 on December 20? Dec 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Dogecoin above $0.40 on December 20? Dec 23 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024? Dec 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 13? Dec 14 $87 +$120 +138%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 6-13? Dec 12 $20 +$26 +128%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 6-13? Dec 12 $20 +$18 +92%
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024? Dec 12 $50 +$23 +46%
Will US unemployment be 4.2% in December 2024? Dec 12 $20 −$3 -15%
Will US unemployment be 4.1% or lower in December 2024? Dec 12 $18 −$6 -31%
Will Real Madrid beat Atalanta? Dec 11 $60 +$98 +163%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 10 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 24 $56 −$20 -36%
Will Carlos Sainz win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 24 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? Nov 23 $237 +$219 +92%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting? Nov 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $283 +$188 +66%
Will the AP call the election on November 6? Nov 06 $80 +$115 +144%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $50 −$32 -63%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times October 25 - November 1? Nov 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? Nov 03 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? Oct 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Oct 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? Oct 28 $9 +$11 +118%
Will Elon tweet 100-124 times October 18-25? Oct 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? Oct 25 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 1h
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 57¢ $528 17h
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 57¢ $37 17h
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 57¢ $6 22h
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 59¢ $514 22h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 27h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 27h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 27h
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 58¢ $7 27h
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 57¢ $102 27h
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 54¢ $98 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $68 6d
NBA Playoffs: Knicks vs. Hawks Total Games O/U 5.5 BUY Under 5.5 69¢ $69 57d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 BUY Yes 30¢ $20 237d
OpenAI browser by October 31? BUY No $30 239d
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 239d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 471d
Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 484d
Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? BUY No 31¢ $10 484d
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 484d
Will AS Monaco advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champion BUY Yes 17¢ $10 484d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 484d
Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 484d
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? SELL Yes 68¢ $65 484d
Will Elon tweet 875-899 times Feb 7-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 489d
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? BUY Yes 66¢ $63 489d
Ethereum above $2,700 on February 14? SELL Yes 60¢ $53 489d
Ethereum above $2,700 on February 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $29 490d
Kanye banned on X by Monday? SELL No 97¢ $99 491d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,549.42 · official $1,551.43 (match) · 131 history records