Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:11:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f04…4476 crypto 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$550 (-10%) realized −$550 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate77%55W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$636
crypto 36% +$186
weather 3% −$123
sports 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +4.5% -5.5% 77% 61% -18.9%
≤30d 71 +4.5% -5.5% 77% 61% -18.9%
≤90d 71 +4.5% -5.5% 77% 61% -18.9%
all 71 +4.5% -5.5% 77% 61% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 61% -18.9%
10% -14.5% 45% -26.6%
15% -22.8% 25% -33.7%
20% -30.4% 13% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$106 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized−$550
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses55 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage6d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $71 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$28 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $203 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET Jun 21 $203 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $61 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $72 −$24 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET Jun 21 $61 +$15 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $93 −$70 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $72 +$23 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$8 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $203 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.42 · official $243.42 (match) · 150 history records