Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:58:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f03…4ce0 other 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 246L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$25
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$43
sports 21% −$18
politics 9% −$7
crypto 8% −$9
economics 7% −$5
culture 5% −$6
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 188 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)258 / 258
History coverage136d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 258 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $575 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $346 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $271 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $508 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $303 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $145 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $148 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $194 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $131 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $317 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $133 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $261 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $503 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $201 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $184 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $476 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $423 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $458 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $500 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $540 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $387 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $153 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $383 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $442 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 30 $251 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $149 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $59 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $59 3h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 4h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 5h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 13h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 14h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $59 16h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $59 17h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 19h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 20h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 26h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 28h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 38h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 40h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 41h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 43h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $60 44h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $60 46h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $60 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $60 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 3d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $60 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $60 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $60 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1390 history records