Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:20:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9E 0x9efd…afcf world 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$7 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate42%37W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$17
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$9
other 22% +$6
politics 14% +$19
sports 8% −$18
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.2% -8.5% 43% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 32 +40.6% +27.3% 41% 6% -8.3%
≤90d 69 +19.2% +7.9% 38% 6% -8.9%
all 89 +24.9% +13.0% 42% 12% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.0% 12% -9.4%
10% +2.2% 8% -18.1%
15% -7.7% 6% -26.0%
20% -16.7% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses37 / 52
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)89 / 93
History coverage532d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-10%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 81¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $3 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $101 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $66 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $46 +$5 +10%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $42 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $13 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $56 +$8 +14%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $123 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $58 +$3 +6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $72 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $121 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $81 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $74 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $3 $0 +15%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $71 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $41 +$1 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $74 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $35 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $27 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $69 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats May 18 $38 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 16 $34 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $2 $0 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $66 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $32 $0 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $32 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $29 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $41 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $50 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $14 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $41 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $10 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $28 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $18 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $6 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $1 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $15 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $5 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $16 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.44 · official $26.28 · 355 history records