Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:52:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9E 0x9efd…40a3 sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$54 (+7%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip
Net edge+46%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate88%15W / 2L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$44
14 days+$44
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$28
sports 30% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+46.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.5% -14.5% 86% 43% -2.6%
≤30d 8 -3.6% -12.8% 88% 38% -2.4%
≤90d 16 +65.3% +49.6% 88% 38% -2.3%
all 17 +61.7% +46.3% 88% 35% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.3% 35% -2.3%
10% +32.3% 12% -11.6%
15% +19.5% 6% -20.2%
20% +7.8% 6% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +134% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.82 per $1 lost it wins $3.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses15 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage91d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $187 +$13 +7%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $95 +$5 +5%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $93 +$7 +7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $17 +$3 +18%
Roland Garros WTA: Magda Linette vs Iga Swiatek May 29 $91 +$9 +10%
Jiujiang: Cody Wong vs Xinxin Yao May 04 $21 +$1 +6%
Jiujiang: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Jiajing Lu May 04 $20 +$3 +14%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? May 02 $2 +$18 +1116%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $18 −$18 -100%
La Bisbal: Daria Kasatkina vs Sara Sorribes Tormo May 02 $20 +$1 +4%
Golden Knights vs. Utah May 02 $20 +$5 +23%
La Bisbal: Caroline Werner vs Tamara Korpatsch May 01 $20 +$1 +6%
Ostrava: Zdenek Kolar vs Nerman Fatic May 01 $20 +$1 +4%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs PARIVISION (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A Mar 24 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $84 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $89 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 95¢ $95 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $93 4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 5d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 84¢ $17 5d
Roland Garros WTA: Magda Linette vs Iga Swiatek BUY Iga Swiatek 91¢ $91 24d
Jiujiang: Cody Wong vs Xinxin Yao BUY Xinxin Yao 94¢ $17 50d
Jiujiang: Cody Wong vs Xinxin Yao BUY Xinxin Yao 94¢ $3 50d
Jiujiang: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Jiajing Lu BUY Zhuoxuan Bai 87¢ $20 50d
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 51d
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 51d
La Bisbal: Daria Kasatkina vs Sara Sorribes Tormo BUY Daria Kasatkina 96¢ $20 51d
Golden Knights vs. Utah BUY Golden Knights 81¢ $20 52d
La Bisbal: Caroline Werner vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 94¢ $20 52d
Ostrava: Zdenek Kolar vs Nerman Fatic BUY Zdenek Kolar 96¢ $20 52d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs PARIVISION (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A SELL PARIVISION 98¢ $5 90d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs PARIVISION (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A BUY PARIVISION 94¢ $5 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records