Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:10:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
9E 0x9efc…cce5 sports 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$5,649 (+10%) realized +$6,014 · open −$365
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%22W / 13L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$1,033per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$681est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$17,635now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,100
7 days+$5,348
14 days+$5,348
30 days+$5,348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$6,912
other 12% −$929
world 2% −$1,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +25.3% +13.4% 63% 63% +3.1%
≤30d 35 +25.3% +13.4% 63% 63% +3.1%
≤90d 35 +25.3% +13.4% 63% 63% +3.1%
all 35 +25.3% +13.4% 63% 63% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.4% 63% +3.1%
10% +2.5% 63% -6.8%
15% -7.4% 63% -15.8%
20% -16.5% 51% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,363) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$938 vs −$1,176 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$17,635
Realized+$6,014
Unrealized−$365
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses22 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$681
Open positions20
Markets (closed)35 / 55
History coverage9d
Avg bet$1,033
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 52¢ 52¢ $2,000 $1,981 −$19 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 62¢ 62¢ $1,240 $1,230 −$10 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $1,000 $1,032 +$32 (+3%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) IR Iran 59¢ 58¢ $1,000 $992 −$8 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $1,000 $990 −$10 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $1,000 $990 −$10 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $1,000 $990 −$10 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $1,000 $990 −$10 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $1,000 $988 −$12 (-1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 47¢ 46¢ $1,000 $982 −$18 (-2%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Haiti 50¢ 48¢ $1,000 $970 −$30 (-3%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 40¢ $1,000 $920 −$80 (-8%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 48¢ 40¢ $1,000 $844 −$156 (-16%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 36¢ $760 $750 −$10 (-1%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Scotland 72¢ 72¢ $720 $715 −$5 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Curaçao 54¢ 54¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 45¢ 44¢ $280 $277 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,016 +$1,162 +114%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $549 +$651 +119%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,013 +$805 +79%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,472 +$550 +37%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 18 $2,023 −$2,023 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,017 +$1,222 +120%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $508 +$534 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,016 +$1,206 +119%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,015 +$1,026 +101%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,023 +$1,255 +62%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,017 +$1,256 +124%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,016 +$1,068 +105%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $2,026 −$2,000 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $610 +$818 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,028 +$1,745 +86%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,413 +$616 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $661 +$816 +124%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,363 +$652 +48%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $1,413 +$616 +44%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $610 +$785 +129%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,017 +$1,364 +134%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $163 −$163 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $2,024 −$2,024 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $347 +$598 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $507 39m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $507 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1,014 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 47¢ $1,016 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1,016 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 59¢ $1,012 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 52¢ $2,029 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 54¢ $507 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $506 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $1,017 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $774 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 62¢ $1,254 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $508 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $507 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1,016 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 50¢ $1,015 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 72¢ $726 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 45¢ $285 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,016 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1,017 2h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $1,016 26h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1,013 26h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 72¢ $1,472 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 45¢ $549 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1,016 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1,017 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1,017 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1,016 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $508 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,015 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,634.99 · official $17,678.56 (match) · 87 history records