Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:50:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9E 0x9efb…f2ed politics 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$1
other 33% $0
crypto 11% $0
sports 6% $0
culture 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 18 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage110d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $110 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $110 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $111 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $111 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $111 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 23 $111 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 11 $111 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $111 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $112 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $113 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $113 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $113 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 20 $113 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $113 $0 +0%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 13 $113 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 08 $113 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $110 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $110 13h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $110 6d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $110 18d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $111 18d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $111 27d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $111 28d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $111 29d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $111 29d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $111 34d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $111 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $111 40d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $111 40d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $111 45d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $111 46d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $111 53d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 53d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $3 53d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 53d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $112 69d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $112 69d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $112 71d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $112 72d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $112 75d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $113 76d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $113 79d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $113 80d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 88d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records