Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:58:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ef6…8437 sports 378 markets active 1h ago coverage 414d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$563 (-5%) realized −$558 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%186W / 189L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$520
7 days−$479
14 days−$479
30 days−$479
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$590
sports 19% −$23
crypto 3% −$11
politics 1% −$54
world 0% −$8
culture 0% $0
economics 0% −$15
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 47% -14.8%
≤30d 30 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 47% -14.8%
≤90d 69 -0.7% -10.2% 59% 46% -14.7%
all 375 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 44% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 44% -15.5%
10% -22.3% 41% -23.6%
15% -29.8% 34% -30.9%
20% -36.7% 30% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$28 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

414d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized−$558
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses186 / 189
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)375 / 378
History coverage414d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 375 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $399 −$202 -51%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,015 −$690 -68%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $397 −$376 -95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $510 −$477 -94%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,414 −$1,414 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $410 +$1,947 +475%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,013 +$741 +73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $287 −$287 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $604 +$196 +32%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $403 +$110 +27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $303 +$120 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $305 +$409 +134%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $306 −$306 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $55 +$30 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$22 +44%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $40 +$12 +29%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $20 +$6 +27%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $20 +$6 +29%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $111 +$11 +10%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $6 +$5 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $22 +$14 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 08 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 08 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 08 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 08 $7 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 08 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 05 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 05 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 05 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 05 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 05 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 05 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $304 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 14¢ $197 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 17¢ $325 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,015 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $399 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 2¢ $21 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 2¢ $33 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 33¢ $510 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $397 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $36 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,414 32h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $410 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,013 35h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 21¢ $287 35h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $403 38h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $67 38h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $604 38h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $72 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $306 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $305 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $55 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY No 85¢ $100 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $40 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY 41¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.12 · official $395.12 (match) · 822 history records