Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:49:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9E 0x9ef5…b52c sports 195 markets active 0h ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-3%) realized −$62 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%89W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$44
sports 45% −$114
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +8.9% -1.5% 79% 47% -12.0%
≤30d 34 +8.9% -1.5% 79% 47% -12.0%
≤90d 34 +8.9% -1.5% 79% 47% -12.0%
all 194 -9.4% -18.0% 46% 39% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 39% -16.3%
10% -25.8% 32% -24.4%
15% -33.0% 30% -31.7%
20% -39.6% 30% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses89 / 105
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)194 / 195
History coverage215d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 79¢ 76¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +249%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 -20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Kings vs. Mavericks Feb 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Pistons vs. Bulls Feb 22 $4 −$2 -50%
Rockets vs. Knicks Feb 22 $6 +$1 +20%
76ers vs. Pelicans Feb 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Kings Feb 08 $12 +$2 +20%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Feb 08 $3 $0 +7%
Warriors vs. Lakers Feb 08 $13 +$2 +16%
Nuggets vs. Bulls Feb 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Feb 07 $2 −$1 -44%
Pacers vs. Bucks Feb 07 $3 −$2 -83%
Heat vs. Celtics Feb 07 $5 −$2 -42%
Bulls vs. Heat Feb 01 $8 −$2 -20%
Mavericks vs. Rockets Feb 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Pelicans vs. 76ers Feb 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Knicks Jan 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.35 · official $15.11 (match) · 418 history records