Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:15:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9E 0x9ef1…5aca sports 2121 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$412 (+2%) realized +$355 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%1046W / 1123L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day40.1pace
Fees−$227est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$854
7 days−$490
14 days+$35
30 days+$1,103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$2,629
other 14% +$65
finance 0% −$10
world 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 400 -55.5% -59.7% 24% 24% -23.5%
≤30d 1027 -6.5% -15.4% 48% 48% -0.3%
≤90d 2169 -1.6% -11.0% 48% 48% -4.2%
all 2169 -1.6% -11.0% 48% 48% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 48% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 44% -13.3%
15% -27.3% 38% -21.7%
20% -34.4% 33% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$1,527
Realized+$355
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses1046 / 1123
Est. fees paid−$227
Open positions81
Markets (closed)2169 / 2121
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day40.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 81 History 2169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Karolina Muchova 69¢ 90¢ $24 $31 +$7 (+30%)
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 29¢ 86¢ $10 $30 +$20 (+198%)
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Stefano Travaglia 85¢ 86¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Brandon Nakashima 60¢ 100¢ $18 $30 +$12 (+67%)
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Bernardo Munk Mesa vs Carles Cordoba Carles Cordoba 66¢ 96¢ $20 $30 +$9 (+46%)
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder Eva Marie Voracek 81¢ 84¢ $28 $30 +$1 (+4%)
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri Yasmine Mansouri 92¢ 95¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+4%)
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Yanki Erel 73¢ 82¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+12%)
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 81¢ 81¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+1%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova Karine Sarkisova 81¢ 80¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli Giorgio Tabacco 75¢ 77¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Raphael Perot 68¢ 88¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+29%)
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Thanasi Kokkinakis 66¢ 74¢ $23 $26 +$3 (+12%)
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jakub Mensik 67¢ 86¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+28%)
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Karolina Pliskova 74¢ 72¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Geoffrey Blancaneaux 63¢ 72¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+14%)
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 43¢ 72¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+66%)
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Alex de Minaur 83¢ 82¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Fenerbahce 70¢ 70¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Henry Searle 56¢ 79¢ $17 $24 +$7 (+41%)
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 64¢ 76¢ $21 $24 +$4 (+17%)
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Lukas Neumayer 80¢ 68¢ $28 $24 −$4 (-14%)
ITF Sapporo: Mana Kawamura vs Natsuho Arakawa Mana Kawamura 68¢ 67¢ $24 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 73¢ 76¢ $23 $23 +$1 (+3%)
ITF Tokyo: Sora Fukuda vs Shunsuke Nakagawa Shunsuke Nakagawa 34¢ 66¢ $12 $23 +$11 (+94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 413 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Ningbo Rockets Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 3, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Sapporo: Mana Kawamura vs Natsuho Arakawa BUY Mana Kawamura 68¢ $24 5m
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 54¢ $19 18m
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 65¢ $21 47m
ITF Monastir: Daniil Sarksian vs Viktor Frydrych BUY Viktor Frydrych 31¢ $10 54m
ITF Monastir: Daniil Sarksian vs Viktor Frydrych BUY Viktor Frydrych 31¢ $1 56m
ITF Luque: Josefina Estevez vs Tiziana Rossini BUY Tiziana Rossini 33¢ $4 1h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 81¢ $29 2h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Alex Hernandez BUY Alex Hernandez 24¢ $9 3h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 29¢ $10 3h
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli BUY Giorgio Tabacco 75¢ $26 4h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Alejandro Tabilo 52¢ $2 4h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Arthur Fery 56¢ $20 4h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Gerard Campana Lee 32¢ $11 4h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 49¢ $17 5h
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva BUY Frederico Ferreira Silva 52¢ $18 5h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 72¢ $3 6h
ITF Gyula: Jeremy Schifris vs John Sperle BUY Jeremy Schifris 17¢ $6 6h
ITF Tokyo: Sora Fukuda vs Shunsuke Nakagawa BUY Shunsuke Nakagawa 34¢ $12 6h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Karine Sarkisova 81¢ $29 6h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Nina Radovanovic BUY Ksenia Zaytseva 72¢ $25 7h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 69¢ $24 7h
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder BUY Eva Marie Voracek 81¢ $29 7h
ITF Mohammedia: Polina Kuharenko vs Vaidehi Chaudhari BUY Polina Kuharenko 41¢ $4 7h
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Edouard Villoslada vs Carles Rojas BUY Carles Rojas 45¢ $11 7h
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 68¢ $24 7h
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Yanki Erel 73¢ $26 7h
ITF Bucharest: Lucie Urbanova vs Anastasia Safta BUY Lucie Urbanova 61¢ $22 8h
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 85¢ $30 8h
ITF Bucharest: Lavinia Luciano vs Alesia Breaz BUY Lavinia Luciano 30¢ $5 8h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Nadja Mladenovic BUY Petja Drame 61¢ $22 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,526.62 · official $1,525.19 (match) · 3500 history records