Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:14:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9E 0x9eef…850f crypto 898 markets active 0h ago coverage 155d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 155d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,330 (-1%) realized −$5,209 · open −$121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate83%775W / 158L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$909per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 155d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$2,567
sports 1% −$4,065
other 1% +$1,519
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -49.5% -54.4% 43% 26% -24.4%
≤30d 74 -49.5% -54.4% 43% 26% -24.4%
≤90d 245 -17.0% -24.9% 74% 26% -16.8%
all 933 -5.9% -14.9% 83% 36% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 36% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 12% -19.7%
15% -30.4% 4% -27.5%
20% -37.3% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$1,217) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$674 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$2,116
Realized−$5,209
Unrealized−$121
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses775 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions2
Markets (closed)933 / 898
History coverage155d ⚠
Avg bet$909
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 933 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 82¢ 74¢ $1,200 $1,070 −$130 (-11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1,037 $1,046 +$8 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $600 −$600 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $792 −$792 -100%
Will Tanzania win on 2025-12-30? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $65 −$196 -304%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $292 −$292 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $281 −$588 -209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $292 −$292 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $278 −$278 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $493 −$493 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1,166 −$1,166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $678 −$696 -103%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $428 −$758 -177%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $317 −$317 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $524 −$783 -149%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $600 −$600 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $38 −$80 -212%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $381 −$381 -100%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $223 −$223 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1,212 +$234 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1,812 +$175 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $1,304 +$52 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1,618 +$287 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $826 +$92 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $400 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $813 +$223 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $146 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $410 +$201 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1,019 +$408 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1,513 +$203 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1,209 +$137 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1,708 +$115 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $304 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $305 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $304 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $302 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $200 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $301 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $308 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $402 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $201 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $201 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $201 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $303 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $301 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $302 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $302 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $301 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $301 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $301 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $401 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $303 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $304 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $303 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $303 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $405 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $403 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $423 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $400 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $406 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $407 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $146 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,115.51 · official $2,100.96 (match) · 3500 history records