Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:09:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9E 0x9eee…9de2 crypto 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%39W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$32
14 days−$6
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +4.8% -5.2% 62% 46% -1.6%
≤30d 57 +2.2% -7.5% 53% 42% +0.2%
≤90d 81 -12.3% -20.7% 48% 40% -4.9%
all 81 -12.3% -20.7% 48% 40% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 40% -4.9%
10% -28.3% 28% -14.0%
15% -35.2% 23% -22.3%
20% -41.6% 21% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses39 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage53d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$11 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$21 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 29 $7 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $7 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 29 $7 +$10 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 29 $25 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $30 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$20 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$3 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$41 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +103%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Jun 18 $11 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$12 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 03 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $12 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $6 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records