Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:03:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9E 0x9ee8…74a7 politics 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$106 (-0%) realized −$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate5%8W / 138L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$15
other 38% −$11
sports 11% −$81
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 103 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 146 -6.7% -15.6% 5% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 3% -9.9%
10% -23.6% 3% -18.5%
15% -31.0% 1% -26.4%
20% -37.8% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses8 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage135d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $20 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $178 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $175 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $169 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $182 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $323 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $363 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $153 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $190 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $146 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $142 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $193 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $170 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $170 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $328 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $283 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $321 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $156 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $299 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $193 −$1 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $172 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $140 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $149 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $162 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $193 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $142 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $152 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $316 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 04 $158 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $176 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $192 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $185 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $144 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $177 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $192 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $155 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $182 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $148 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $154 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $348 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 26 $371 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $198 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $340 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $190 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 2h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 14h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 35h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 42h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 3d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 8d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 9d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 9d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $0 18d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 18d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 23d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 26d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $175 26d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $175 27d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $169 27d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $169 28d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $182 29d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $182 29d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $142 29d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $142 30d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $148 31d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $148 31d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $153 31d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $153 31d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $190 31d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $190 32d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $181 32d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $181 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 427 history records