Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:08:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9E 0x9edf…f572 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-1%) realized −$40 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$93
14 days+$59
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$77
other 23% +$15
crypto 11% −$162
finance 7% +$59
tech 5% −$43
sports 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -11.7% -20.1% 50% 33% +4.5%
≤30d 18 -22.8% -30.1% 39% 28% -0.3%
≤90d 30 -32.2% -38.6% 37% 27% -10.4%
all 33 -32.6% -39.0% 36% 24% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.0% 24% -11.6%
10% -44.9% 18% -20.0%
15% -50.2% 9% -27.8%
20% -55.1% 6% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$25 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage104d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $72 $61 −$11 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Jun 29 $125 +$53 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 26 $216 +$16 +7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 25 $100 −$20 -20%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 25 $100 +$100 +100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $15 −$8 -50%
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $70 +$4 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $179 −$15 -8%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $101 −$11 -11%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -71%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$25 +25%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $51 −$22 -43%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $51 +$75 +146%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr Apr 30 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 29 $100 −$7 -7%
Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? Apr 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026? Apr 13 $300 +$8 +3%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? Apr 08 $434 −$71 -16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 08 $250 +$59 +24%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $100 +$12 +12%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $285 +$83 +29%
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by April 30? Mar 30 $21 −$21 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Mar 30 $200 −$26 -13%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $200 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $178 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $37 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $37 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $110 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 94¢ $232 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 91¢ $115 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $25 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 82¢ $101 4d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $200 4d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $100 5d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 9¢ $7 12d
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 12d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 65¢ $74 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $70 12d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $61 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $104 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $57 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 67¢ $55 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.85 · official $60.85 (match) · 75 history records