Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:24:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9E 0x9ed6…0356 weather 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate72%21W / 8L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 87% −$6
weather 10% +$1
tech 1% $0
other 1% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.7%
all 29 +0.3% -9.3% 72% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses21 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage185d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 106-107°F on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $144 $144 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on May 28? May 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $755 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $522 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $779 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 17 $444 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on March 18? Mar 17 $63 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $603 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 65°F or below on March 14? Mar 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 12? Mar 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on March 12? Mar 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or below on March 7? Mar 07 $29 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,140 on the final trading day of Febru Feb 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on February 26? Feb 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C or below on February 26? Feb 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on January 8? Jan 20 $15 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Ja Jan 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 20 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on January 4 Jan 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on January Jan 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 106-107°F on June 2 BUY No 100¢ $144 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $61 33d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $754 74d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $755 74d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $725 75d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $726 78d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $520 78d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $522 81d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $540 86d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $540 87d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $778 93d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $779 94d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $626 100d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $627 102d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $443 103d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $63 103d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $444 104d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $603 105d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $603 106d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 65°F or below on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $47 107d
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $58 109d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $54 109d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or below on March 7? BUY No 99¢ $29 114d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 122d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,140 on the final trading day of Febru BUY No 100¢ $14 123d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $30 123d
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on February 26? BUY No 100¢ $12 123d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C or below on February 26? BUY No 100¢ $35 123d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 151d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.70 · official $204.70 (match) · 79 history records