Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:39:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9ed6…85e0 politics 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$2
other 28% −$1
sports 19% $0
culture 6% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage180d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $116 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $347 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $116 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $116 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $116 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $117 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $237 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $237 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $237 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 14 $237 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 06 $237 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 06 $236 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 03 $228 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 02 $9 $0 -1%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 30 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $229 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 03 $233 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 02 $229 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 31 $226 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $116 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $116 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $116 24d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $116 24d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $116 37d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $116 37d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $116 44d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $116 45d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $116 49d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $116 49d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $117 71d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $117 71d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $236 86d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $237 86d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $237 98d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $237 98d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $237 101d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $16 102d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $220 102d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $237 104d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $237 104d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $237 111d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $9 111d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $98 111d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $130 111d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $237 139d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $236 141d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 142d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 143d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 98¢ $9 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records