Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:56:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9E 0x9ed3…a16b crypto 922 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$644 (+0%) realized +$637 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate83%775W / 156L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$206
14 days+$210
30 days+$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$571
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -3.7% -12.9% 89% 21% -6.7%
≤30d 114 -3.2% -12.4% 89% 21% -6.6%
≤90d 430 -2.6% -11.9% 81% 28% -9.6%
all 931 -1.2% -10.6% 83% 28% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 28% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 14% -18.2%
15% -27.0% 10% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$75 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized+$637
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses775 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)931 / 922
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$180
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 931 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Up 92¢ 96¢ $184 $191 +$7 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $177 +$23 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $190 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $194 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $188 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $85 −$84 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $92 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $87 +$13 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $92 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 27 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $81 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $94 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $92 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $94 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $94 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $97 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $93 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $88 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $93 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $89 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $89 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $92 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $96 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $89 +$11 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $185 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $177 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $190 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $194 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $164 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $85 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $92 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $87 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $92 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $81 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $94 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $96 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $92 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $95 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $94 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $94 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $97 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $93 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $88 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $93 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $95 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $91 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $95 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.00 · official $179.00 · 3500 history records