Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:35:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9E 0x9ecc…415a sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$141 (+18%) realized +$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$198
sports 29% +$80
crypto 13% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +11.4% +0.7% 54% 54% +30.8%
≤30d 13 +11.4% +0.7% 54% 54% +30.8%
≤90d 13 +11.4% +0.7% 54% 54% +30.8%
all 13 +11.4% +0.7% 54% 54% +30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 54% +30.8%
10% -8.9% 54% +18.2%
15% -17.7% 54% +6.8%
20% -25.8% 54% -3.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$30 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.94 per $1 lost it wins $2.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$164 +108%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 +$38 +188%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $25 +$44 +172%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 +$77 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 23¢ $10 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $25 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 34¢ $20 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 5h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $10 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 30h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $10 30h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $26 30h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $25 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 38h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records