Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:49:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ecc…dd76 world 29 markets active 7d ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$750 (-66%) realized −$701 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate21%6W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$28
14 days−$19
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$517
other 17% −$196
politics 13% −$9
crypto 3% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-66.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 8 -81.2% -83.0% 12% 12% -49.7%
≤90d 13 -75.8% -78.1% 15% 15% -47.5%
all 28 -63.0% -66.6% 21% 18% -67.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.6% 18% -67.6%
10% -69.8% 18% -70.7%
15% -72.7% 14% -73.5%
20% -75.4% 11% -76.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -78% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$37 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$701
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses6 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage121d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 19¢ 1¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $20 +$10 +50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $50 −$41 -82%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? May 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 03 $35 −$35 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg? Apr 08 $30 +$20 +64%
Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Mar 09 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $23 +$7 +28%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 01 $25 −$25 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the State of the Union be 130 minutes or longer? Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the State of the Union be 100 minutes or longer? Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the State of the Union be 80 minutes or longer? Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026? Feb 16 $29 +$11 +37%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 14 $25 +$60 +240%
Will Trump say "Percent" 4+ times during Fox interview on Tuesday? Feb 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Fox interview on Tuesday? Feb 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Feb 14 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 12, 2026? Feb 12 $399 −$364 -91%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026? Feb 11 $94 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 16d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 40d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 40d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 43d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 43d
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 44d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 44d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 44d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 69d
Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 87d
Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 100d
Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 100d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 78¢ $12 100d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 78¢ $11 100d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 107d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 110d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 110d
Will the State of the Union be 130 minutes or longer? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 112d
Will the State of the Union be 100 minutes or longer? BUY No 41¢ $20 112d
Will the State of the Union be 80 minutes or longer? BUY No 9¢ $20 112d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.45 · official $1.45 (match) · 59 history records