Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ecb…26e8 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$844 (-14%) realized −$805 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate21%3W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$811now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$307
politics 25% $0
world 17% −$626
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -35.0% -41.2% 25% 8% -31.7%
≤30d 14 -30.0% -36.7% 21% 7% -25.3%
≤90d 14 -30.0% -36.7% 21% 7% -25.3%
all 14 -30.0% -36.7% 21% 7% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.7% 7% -25.3%
10% ← realistic here -42.8% 7% -32.4%
15% -48.3% 0% -38.9%
20% -53.4% 0% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$110 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$811
Realized−$805
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 60¢ 69¢ $446 $512 +$66 (+15%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 32¢ 20¢ $317 $205 −$112 (-35%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 50¢ 54¢ $87 $93 +$7 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $419 −$43 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $66 +$22 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $234 −$56 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $110 −$107 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $952 +$25 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $487 +$45 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $234 −$73 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $546 −$545 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $46 −$25 -54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $201 −$41 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $301 −$40 -13%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,493 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $62 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $65 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $24 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $76 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $58 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $18 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $300 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $29 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $50 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $810.52 · official $810.59 (match) · 155 history records