Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:05:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ec6…6ce8 world 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate35%26W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% $0
politics 23% −$1
other 23% −$1
sports 13% +$6
crypto 3% +$1
economics 1% $0
tech 1% −$20
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 29 -4.0% -13.1% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 65 -1.8% -11.2% 32% 0% -9.5%
all 74 -0.2% -9.7% 35% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 5% -9.9%
10% -18.4% 5% -18.5%
15% -26.2% 4% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses26 / 48
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage532d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $67 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $19 −$1 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $40 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $39 +$1 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $95 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $9 −$1 -10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $112 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $71 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $47 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $37 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $65 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $146 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $73 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $36 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $39 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $74 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $120 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $2 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $4 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $74 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $74 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $74 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $150 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $4 $0 -2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 53m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $13 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 35h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $10 46h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 17¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $40 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $13 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $22 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $1 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $27 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $38 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $20 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $21 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $40 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $39 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.58 · official $0.00 (match) · 309 history records