Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:58:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9ec6…2ad1 sports 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$384 (+30%) realized +$385 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%22W / 40L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days+$170
14 days+$368
30 days+$486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$389
weather 17% −$24
other 12% −$5
world 10% +$84
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +19.5% +8.1% 41% 41% +16.8%
≤30d 49 +27.0% +14.9% 41% 41% +37.2%
≤90d 62 +7.1% -3.1% 35% 35% +22.6%
all 62 +7.1% -3.1% 35% 35% +22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 35% +22.6%
10% -12.4% 35% +10.8%
15% -20.9% 35% +0.1%
20% -28.6% 34% -9.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$14 · ×3.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$385
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses22 / 40
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions5
Markets (closed)62 / 67
History coverage84d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by December 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 39¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals Yes 20¢ 15¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$19 +190%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 22 $10 +$42 +413%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$2 -10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$16 +158%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 +$27 +134%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$28 +140%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$27 +134%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $20 +$7 +36%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $31 +$57 +186%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $20 −$12 -60%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $20 −$7 -37%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $20 −$12 -61%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $10 +$30 +289%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$32 +158%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$63 +124%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$12 -60%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$13 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$31 +152%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $20 −$1 -7%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $71 +$138 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$95 +604%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $21 +$44 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 9? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 8? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $31 +$60 +197%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $21 +$39 +188%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $51 +$84 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $41 −$40 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 28? Apr 28 $51 −$49 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 89¢ $30 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 30¢ $10 1h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $53 1h
Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $32 1h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 19¢ $19 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 5h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 20¢ $20 5h
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $10 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 24¢ $1 11h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 23h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $20 25h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 25h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $20 25h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 27h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 10¢ $21 33h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Netherlands 41¢ $28 33h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 99¢ $87 33h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 29¢ $20 34h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 34¢ $31 35h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 46h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $20 2d
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) SELL Czechia 14¢ $13 3d
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY Czechia 21¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.47 · official $46.47 (match) · 133 history records