Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:15:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ec2…773f other 88 markets active 8h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+0%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%32W / 53L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$46
14 days−$56
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$30
other 29% +$7
sports 7% +$1
politics 6% −$2
economics 5% −$2
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.1% -8.5% 29% 14% -12.6%
≤30d 24 +83.1% +65.7% 33% 8% -10.5%
≤90d 39 +50.9% +36.6% 44% 5% -9.9%
all 85 +23.8% +12.0% 38% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.0% 5% -9.8%
10% +1.3% 2% -18.4%
15% -8.5% 2% -26.3%
20% -17.5% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses32 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)85 / 88
History coverage322d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 69¢ 73¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $500 −$45 -9%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $161 −$1 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $160 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $201 −$2 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $322 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $572 +$1 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $343 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $155 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $268 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $366 −$6 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $59 −$9 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $170 +$5 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $170 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $182 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $353 +$71 +20%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $188 −$2 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $176 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $175 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $192 +$7 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $291 −$3 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $7 $0 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $170 +$11 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $170 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $158 +$14 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $161 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $118 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $53 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $27 −$8 -30%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $161 +$1 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $205 +$1 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $609 +$1 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $555 −$2 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $555 +$1 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 25 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $63 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $97 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $158 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $153 $0 -0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $97 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $51 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 46¢ $100 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 46¢ $19 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $161 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 16h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $25 23h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $33 23h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $102 23h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $161 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $4 30h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $63 30h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $68 30h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $26 30h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $162 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $162 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $147 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $15 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $161 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $160 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $46 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $41 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $74 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $69 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.13 · official $0.00 · 554 history records