Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:04:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9E 0x9ebf…ff4a sports 164 markets active 0h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,765 (-13%) realized −$8,695 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate65%104W / 55L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$397per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days−$7,697
14 days−$7,448
30 days−$7,448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$5,680
crypto 39% −$2,992
other 3% −$170
weather 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -41.9% -47.5% 38% 30% -46.8%
≤30d 68 -35.2% -41.4% 43% 32% -44.3%
≤90d 76 -29.7% -36.4% 47% 36% -43.3%
all 159 -8.7% -17.4% 65% 49% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 49% -21.8%
10% -25.3% 28% -29.3%
15% -32.5% 17% -36.1%
20% -39.1% 10% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$316 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$8,695
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses104 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions3
Markets (closed)159 / 164
History coverage240d
Avg bet$397
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 57¢ 68¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+19%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 63¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $201 −$8 -4%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $148 +$53 +36%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $102 +$46 +46%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $93 +$9 +9%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U Jun 19 $38 +$56 +148%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $30 +$8 +27%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 AND Spread Jun 18 $60 +$19 +32%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-2.5) AND Spread: Englan Jun 17 $117 +$1 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Fra Jun 17 $25 +$34 +136%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $8 +$9 +109%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $509 −$497 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 8? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs KT Rolster (BO1) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO1) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: DRX vs DN Freecs (BO1) Jun 14 $70 −$68 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 7? Jun 14 $138 +$13 +9%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO1) Jun 14 $144 +$42 +29%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: DN Freecs vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 14 $114 −$114 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
LoL: Japan vs T1 (BO1) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 28? Jun 14 $666 −$543 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 9? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 6? Jun 14 $184 −$184 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) Jun 14 $308 +$34 +11%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Jun 14 $155 −$155 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs T1 (BO1) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+2.5) Jun 14 $207 −$207 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs (BO1) Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Team Liquid (BO1) Jun 14 $327 −$268 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 2? Jun 14 $664 −$324 -49%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $303 −$303 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs BNK FEARX (BO1) Jun 14 $193 −$193 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $204 −$204 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $284 −$284 -100%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 14 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 10? Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $610 −$610 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 9? Jun 14 $1,389 −$1,389 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,397 −$1,397 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $570 −$570 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Top Esports (+2.5) Jun 14 $303 −$303 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $20 19m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 48¢ $10 21m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $20 22m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 35¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $30 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 70¢ $125 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 70¢ $68 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $201 8h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 73¢ $148 9h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $148 9h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $102 9h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 67¢ $0 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 67¢ $101 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $93 10h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U BUY 40¢ $38 18h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $38 18h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $30 20h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 90¢ $79 28h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 AND Spread BUY 75¢ $60 43h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-2.5) AND Spread: Englan SELL 56¢ $59 43h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-2.5) AND Spread: Englan BUY 54¢ $59 44h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-2.5) AND Spread: Englan SELL 56¢ $59 44h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-2.5) AND Spread: Englan BUY 54¢ $58 44h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Fra BUY 42¢ $25 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY 47¢ $18 3d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 85¢ $17 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.55 · official $68.37 · 494 history records