Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9E 0x9eba…ae0f other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$156 (+25%) realized +$158 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$150
crypto 2% +$5
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +9.7% -0.7% 80% 80% +30.0%
≤30d 5 +9.7% -0.7% 80% 80% +30.0%
≤90d 5 +9.7% -0.7% 80% 80% +30.0%
all 5 +9.7% -0.7% 80% 80% +30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 80% +30.0%
10% -10.2% 60% +17.6%
15% -18.9% 60% +6.2%
20% -26.8% 0% -4.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$5 · ×7.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×31.14 per $1 lost it wins $31.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized+$158
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $285 $283 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $196 +$89 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $131 +$63 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $287 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $196 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $194 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $131 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $15 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $5 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $283.12 · official $283.12 (match) · 11 history records