Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9E 0x9eb8…af0a politics 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,090per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$9
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 93% −$110
other 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 24 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 24 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$992) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$5 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage63d
Avg bet$1,090
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,871 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,871 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,774 −$3 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $1,878 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $889 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $891 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $1,796 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $895 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $894 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $894 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $898 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $900 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $434 −$78 -18%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $989 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $990 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $992 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $876 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $878 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $879 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $880 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $878 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $880 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $879 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $880 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $879 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $881 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $882 15d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $883 16d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $887 17d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $888 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $888 20d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $889 20d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $884 22d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $885 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $890 24d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $891 25d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $890 26d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $891 27d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $891 28d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $893 28d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $893 30d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $895 31d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $892 32d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $894 33d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $896 34d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $897 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records