Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

9E 0x9eb2…abdf other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$467 (+4%) realized +$461 · open +$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate67%14W / 7L

Whale WR83%big bets

Drawdown64%max

Avg bet$574per market

Trades / day9.6pace

Fees−$96est.

Kalshi-fit45%portable

Net worth$506now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+5.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+16.9%	+5.7%	67%	62%	+7.7%
≤30d	21	+16.9%	+5.7%	67%	62%	+7.7%
≤90d	21	+16.9%	+5.7%	67%	62%	+7.7%
all	21	+16.9%	+5.7%	67%	62%	+7.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.6 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+5.7%	62%	+7.7%
10% ← realistic here	-4.4%	57%	-2.6%
15%	-13.6%	52%	-12.0%
20%	-22.1%	38%	-20.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 83% (≥$828) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +15% → late +18% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$345 vs −$361 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$506

Realized+$461

Unrealized+$6

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses14 / 7

Whale WR (big bets)83%

Est. fees paid−$96

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage5d

Avg bet$574

Trades / day9.6

Drawdown64%

Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Austria	45¢	46¢	$500	$506	+$6 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$1,011	+$595	+59%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$1,516	+$732	+48%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 16	$557	+$247	+44%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$1,179	+$359	+30%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$790	+$361	+46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$265	+$523	+197%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$507	−$500	-98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$154	−$150	-98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$910	+$17	+2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$838	−$828	-99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$305	+$229	+75%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5	Jun 15	$911	+$599	+66%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$304	+$278	+91%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$306	−$54	-18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$275	+$333	+121%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$306	−$218	-71%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$658	−$650	-99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$445	+$246	+55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$133	−$130	-98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$503	+$76	+15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$254	+$235	+92%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	45¢	$508	49m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$1,607	1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	58¢	$304	1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	59¢	$101	1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	64¢	$606	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	97¢	$2,248	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$505	3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$1,010	3h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	SELL Norway	88¢	$804	3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	99¢	$939	4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	58¢	$557	4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	60¢	$557	5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	63¢	$599	6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	64¢	$622	6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$790	10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	33¢	$265	30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$203	31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	14¢	$51	33h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$304	33h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	65¢	$927	33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$202	33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	32¢	$29	34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	50¢	$304	34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	65¢	$505	34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	84¢	$534	34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$708	38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	47¢	$305	38h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	99¢	$1,510	47h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	59¢	$911	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $505.56 · official $505.56 (match) · 49 history records