Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:49:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9E 0x9ead…f24e crypto 709 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$261 (+2%) realized +$261 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%281W / 427L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$181
7 days−$175
14 days−$285
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$79
other 8% −$362
sports 1% +$76
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -20.7% -28.3% 55% 50% -26.5%
≤30d 31 -19.0% -26.7% 52% 48% -26.1%
≤90d 231 -9.1% -17.7% 39% 29% -17.7%
all 708 -7.2% -16.1% 40% 35% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 35% -10.3%
10% -24.1% 32% -18.8%
15% -31.4% 29% -26.7%
20% -38.2% 24% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$16 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$261
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses281 / 427
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)708 / 709
History coverage154d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 708 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 277 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 −$28 -68%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $28 +$3 +9%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $26 +$18 +70%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 +$35 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 +$28 +54%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$6 +27%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $220 −$219 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $84 +$94 +112%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$49 -48%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$43 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 28 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 10 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 10 $10 +$32 +320%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 10 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 10 $61 −$26 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 10 $20 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 10 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 10 $22 +$28 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 10 $40 +$60 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 30m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 8¢ $13 34m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 45m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $28 6h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 7h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $86 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 33h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $60 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $52 6d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.73 · official $12.73 (match) · 2762 history records