Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:41:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9eac…7d35 other 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate13%12W / 83L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% $0
politics 12% −$3
economics 6% −$2
world 4% −$1
sports 4% +$22
tech 3% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 +7.2% -3.0% 29% 7% -8.6%
≤90d 93 +2.3% -7.5% 13% 9% -9.5%
all 95 +2.2% -7.5% 13% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 8% -9.5%
10% -16.4% 8% -18.1%
15% -24.4% 8% -26.0%
20% -31.9% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×8.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses12 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage93d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $173 $173 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $253 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $91 +$1 +1%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 06 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 05 $89 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $227 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $49 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $46 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 21 $11 +$12 +101%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $53 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $293 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $233 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $229 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 08 $230 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 07 $469 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 06 $238 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $689 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $244 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 20 $487 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $256 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $431 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $243 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $617 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 15 $240 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $252 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $239 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $240 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $244 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $261 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $446 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 12 $258 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $842 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $247 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $457 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $436 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 10 $252 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 4h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 22h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 24h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $173 25h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 6d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 7d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $91 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 12d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 13d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $32 13d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $32 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 23d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 23d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $48 25d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 25d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $89 27d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 28d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 28d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $46 29d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $46 29d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Cleveland Guardians 49¢ $11 30d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $53 30d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $53 30d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 31d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 31d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $233 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.91 · official $172.91 (match) · 288 history records