Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:12:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9eab…7e13 sports 392 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,086 (-3%) realized −$5,910 · open −$176
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%190W / 197L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$464per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$645est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,565
7 days+$124
14 days+$1,199
30 days+$611
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$6,528
other 1% +$44
world 0% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -24.8% -31.9% 44% 44% -7.6%
≤30d 51 -7.9% -16.7% 53% 51% -5.8%
≤90d 190 -1.3% -10.7% 51% 49% -11.2%
all 387 -5.8% -14.8% 49% 44% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 44% -12.7%
10% -22.9% 41% -21.1%
15% -30.4% 34% -28.7%
20% -37.2% 28% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$556) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$209 vs −$234 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$1,257
Realized−$5,910
Unrealized−$176
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses190 / 197
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$645
Open positions5
Markets (closed)387 / 392
History coverage145d
Avg bet$464
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 55¢ 100¢ $275 $500 +$225 (+82%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 50¢ 50¢ $350 $346 −$4 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 52¢ $260 $262 +$2 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $146 $148 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Spain 60¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Over 55¢ $165 $0 −$165 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $591 +$609 +103%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $745 +$1,070 +144%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $483 +$275 +57%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) Jun 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 175.5 Jun 21 $173 −$173 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5) Jun 20 $244 +$204 +83%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 167.5 Jun 20 $153 −$153 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 20 $161 −$161 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) Jun 19 $148 +$122 +83%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $111 +$39 +35%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) Jun 18 $159 +$141 +89%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $150 +$100 +66%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 17 $117 −$117 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 17 $318 −$318 -100%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) Jun 17 $243 −$243 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $135 −$135 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $338 −$338 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $410 −$410 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $313 −$313 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $228 +$72 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $127 +$73 +57%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $151 +$49 +32%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $680 +$170 +25%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $652 +$33 +5%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5) Jun 14 $228 +$174 +76%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $566 −$250 -44%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 13 $185 −$185 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $275 +$424 +154%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $461 +$539 +117%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $149 −$149 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Jun 13 $115 +$85 +73%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $155 +$145 +93%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 12 $355 −$355 -100%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $406 +$94 +23%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $448 +$452 +101%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 07 $159 −$159 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $94 +$106 +113%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 172.5 Jun 06 $569 −$569 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $289 +$329 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $498 +$435 +87%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 04 $186 +$173 +93%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $587 +$93 +16%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $504 +$86 +17%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Jun 03 $166 −$166 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 03 $469 −$469 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $497 −$497 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 50¢ $355 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 60¢ $226 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 60¢ $14 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $165 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $146 1h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 50¢ $42 3h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 50¢ $10 3h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 50¢ $200 3h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 50¢ $12 3h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 50¢ $1 3h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 50¢ $27 3h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 50¢ $9 3h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 50¢ $50 3h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 48¢ $8 3h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 48¢ $131 3h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 48¢ $55 3h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 48¢ $3 3h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 48¢ $3 3h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 48¢ $38 3h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 48¢ $3 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $2 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $10 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $27 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $236 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $264 3h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro SELL Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $1,816 3h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 41¢ $602 5h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 41¢ $18 5h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 41¢ $2 5h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 41¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,256.63 · official $1,256.63 (match) · 2126 history records