Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:20:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
9E 0x9eaa…80db sports 188 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,748 (+15%) realized +$3,691 · open −$943
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%83W / 84L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$158est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$773now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$551
7 days+$1,597
14 days+$2,888
30 days+$3,174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$549
world 26% +$2,919
other 9% −$153
politics 5% −$517
finance 1% −$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +18.8% +7.5% 52% 52% +26.1%
≤30d 113 +19.8% +8.4% 52% 52% +15.0%
≤90d 167 +16.4% +5.4% 50% 50% +11.4%
all 167 +16.4% +5.4% 50% 50% +11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.4% 50% +11.4%
10% -4.7% 49% +0.8%
15% -13.9% 49% -9.0%
20% -22.4% 45% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$72 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$773
Realized+$3,691
Unrealized−$943
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses83 / 84
Est. fees paid−$158
Open positions21
Markets (closed)167 / 188
History coverage54d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $150 $184 +$34 (+23%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 35¢ 26¢ $200 $145 −$55 (-27%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $150 $133 −$17 (-12%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 47¢ 7¢ $320 $48 −$272 (-85%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes 33¢ 12¢ $100 $38 −$62 (-62%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $70 $31 −$39 (-55%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $35 $21 −$14 (-39%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $50 $18 −$32 (-63%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+41%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 44¢ 4¢ $150 $13 −$137 (-91%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $100 $10 −$90 (-90%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 23¢ 1¢ $252 $7 −$245 (-97%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-43%)
Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $36 +$125 +349%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$201 +197%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $142 +$191 +134%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $350 +$68 +19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $112 −$110 -99%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $150 −$100 -67%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $122 −$120 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $113 +$195 +172%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $193 +$182 +94%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $82 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $82 −$80 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $200 +$353 +177%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $112 −$110 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $203 +$95 +47%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $132 −$130 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $168 +$207 +123%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $122 +$85 +70%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $256 +$235 +92%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $610 +$800 +131%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $102 +$118 +116%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $97 +$180 +186%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $56 +$98 +174%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$21 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $160 −$160 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $71 +$95 +134%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $111 +$51 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $98 +$115 +117%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $122 +$89 +73%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 12 $155 −$155 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $71 +$140 +197%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $112 −$110 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $152 +$77 +51%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $112 +$129 +115%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$63 +62%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $102 +$105 +103%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 10 $152 −$150 -99%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $101 +$55 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $161 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $303 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $333 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $142 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $418 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 52¢ $112 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $350 22h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $50 22h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 56¢ $122 27h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $113 40h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $374 41h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 42¢ $51 43h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 54¢ $142 45h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 36¢ $82 46h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $150 46h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Infinite 37¢ $82 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $553 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $112 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $200 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $102 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $50 3d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Terence Atmane 15¢ $31 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $36 3d
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 100¢ $154 3d
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 65¢ $101 3d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $773.42 · official $773.42 (match) · 379 history records