Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$3

7 days+$3

14 days+$3

30 days+$3

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	54¢	52¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+0%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Yes	32¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 11	$1	−$1	-98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia?	Jun 11	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$5	+$2	+41%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 11	$1	+$3	+287%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

other 93% +$4

sports 7% −$1

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	12¢	$1	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$5	1h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$1	13h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$7	13h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa?	SELL Yes	72¢	$4	13h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$5	18h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+19.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+32.0%	+19.5%	50%	50%	+24.4%
≤30d	4	+32.0%	+19.5%	50%	50%	+24.4%
≤90d	4	+32.0%	+19.5%	50%	50%	+24.4%
all	4	+32.0%	+19.5%	50%	50%	+24.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+19.5%	50%	+24.4%
10%	+8.0%	50%	+12.5%
15%	-2.4%	50%	+1.6%
20%	-12.0%	25%	-8.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.