Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ea2…3265 other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$199 (-10%) realized −$196 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate40%22W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days−$117
30 days−$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$187
sports 4% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-36.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +22.3% +10.7% 100% 100% +10.7%
≤30d 55 -29.7% -36.4% 40% 29% -20.1%
≤90d 55 -29.7% -36.4% 40% 29% -20.1%
all 55 -29.7% -36.4% 40% 29% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.4% 29% -20.1%
10% -42.5% 22% -27.7%
15% -48.0% 16% -34.7%
20% -53.1% 11% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$196
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses22 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage26d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $51 +$11 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $137 −$90 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$6 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $20 −$16 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $20 +$14 +69%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $5 +$3 +56%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $25 −$19 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $40 +$6 +16%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $15 +$7 +44%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $15 −$14 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $101 +$19 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $72 −$44 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $252 +$45 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $31 +$6 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $131 +$13 +10%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $20 +$14 +70%
Mexico vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score May 31 $20 −$14 -67%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $26 −$8 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $33 +$14 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $13 +$18 +134%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $11 −$2 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $29 −$12 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $31 −$2 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $14 −$13 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $7 −$6 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $61 +$2 +4%
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? May 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $11 −$7 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $45 +$15 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $9 −$8 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $9 −$8 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 33m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 51m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $53 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 7d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 7d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 7d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $32 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $20 8d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 8d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $41 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $56 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $5 8d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $3 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $8 8d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 9d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.35 · official $37.35 (match) · 250 history records