Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:48:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ea2…effe crypto 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$68 (-3%) realized −$66 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate32%24W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$90
14 days+$33
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$41
tech 27% −$14
crypto 23% +$60
world 9% +$41
politics 6% −$39
sports 3% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 50% +32.9%
≤30d 30 -21.7% -29.1% 30% 27% -12.5%
≤90d 30 -21.7% -29.1% 30% 27% -12.5%
all 76 -17.3% -25.2% 32% 25% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 25% -10.1%
10% -32.4% 22% -18.7%
15% -38.9% 17% -26.5%
20% -44.9% 12% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$9 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized−$66
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses24 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)76 / 86
History coverage156d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $205 $199 −$6 (-3%)
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+480%)
Will annual inflation be 4.4% in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 28 $95 +$114 +120%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $11 +$4 +37%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $19 −$8 -42%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 21 $33 +$15 +46%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 20 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 20 $10 −$7 -65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 20 $27 −$18 -68%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 20 $28 +$8 +28%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 20 $15 +$5 +31%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 20 $20 −$2 -8%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -12%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$10 +51%
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $91 −$26 -29%
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $17 −$5 -30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $45 −$33 -74%
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -7%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $48 +$5 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $146 −$63 -43%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $17 −$8 -50%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $44 +$27 +61%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $16 +$30 +186%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 11 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -11%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? Feb 06 $33 +$30 +89%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $700b on February 28? Feb 06 $22 +$4 +16%
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28? Feb 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 06 $24 −$1 -5%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026? Feb 06 $26 +$115 +438%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31? Feb 06 $24 −$4 -17%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Feb 04 $11 −$3 -31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 5? Feb 04 $32 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 04 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Feb 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Feb 04 $17 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Feb 04 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 04 $16 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 04 $24 +$10 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 4? Feb 04 $1 $0 +26%
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 03 $38 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? Feb 03 $31 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 64¢ $208 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND SELL 99¢ $208 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 39¢ $15 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 94¢ $15 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 68¢ $11 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 35¢ $11 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $19 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 44¢ $95 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND W BUY 29¢ $48 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 44¢ $48 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND W BUY 12¢ $9 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 29¢ $33 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND W BUY 19¢ $20 7d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 16¢ $8 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND SELL 12¢ $4 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND SELL 11¢ $9 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 33¢ $27 7d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $27 7d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $19 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 48¢ $19 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 2¢ $0 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 33¢ $10 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 5¢ $8 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 28¢ $19 8d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 47¢ $1 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 2¢ $5 8d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $4 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 3¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.13 · official $205.13 (match) · 248 history records