Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:25:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9E 0x9e9f…1d38 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$550 (+11%) realized +$294 · open +$256
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$403per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$2,666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$64
14 days+$64
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$78
other 35% +$212
economics 27% +$260
politics 2% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +7.6% -2.7% 50% 50% -4.7%
≤30d 4 +6.2% -3.9% 75% 25% -4.9%
≤90d 6 -7.7% -16.4% 67% 33% -1.1%
all 6 -7.7% -16.4% 67% 33% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 33% -1.1%
10% -24.4% 17% -10.6%
15% -31.7% 0% -19.2%
20% -38.4% 0% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$3 · ×20.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×40.91 per $1 lost it wins $40.91
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$2,666
Realized+$294
Unrealized+$256
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)6 / 12
History coverage116d
Avg bet$403
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 55¢ 56¢ $1,341 $1,353 +$12 (+1%)
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? No 54¢ 69¢ $861 $1,117 +$257 (+30%)
Canada's population Up or Down this year? Down 48¢ 72¢ $108 $161 +$53 (+49%)
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+7%)
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record? Yes 38¢ 88¢ $6 $14 +$8 (+133%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 10¢ $77 $2 −$75 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 27 $762 −$3 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 27 $428 +$66 +16%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting? Jun 11 $384 +$34 +9%
Canada recession before 2027? May 29 $369 +$3 +1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? May 25 $415 +$122 +29%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meetin Apr 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $714 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $45 1h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL No 85¢ $746 1h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL No 86¢ $13 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $92 2h
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? SELL No 71¢ $87 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $489 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $494 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $428 13d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 84¢ $339 14d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 84¢ $423 14d
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? BUY No 55¢ $28 15d
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight BUY Yes 90¢ $9 17d
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight BUY Yes 90¢ $8 18d
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? BUY No 53¢ $7 18d
Canada recession before 2027? SELL Yes 39¢ $358 29d
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? BUY No 44¢ $4 30d
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? BUY No 44¢ $39 33d
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? BUY No 44¢ $45 33d
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? SELL Yes 98¢ $537 33d
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? BUY No 40¢ $2 37d
Canada recession before 2027? SELL Yes 39¢ $14 43d
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meetin BUY Yes $0 59d
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meetin BUY Yes $0 60d
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meetin BUY Yes $0 60d
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meetin BUY Yes $0 60d
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meetin BUY Yes $0 60d
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meetin BUY Yes $1 60d
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meetin BUY Yes $0 61d
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meetin BUY Yes $0 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,665.88 · official $2,666.05 (match) · 122 history records