Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:41:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9e9f…eb91 weather 195 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%184W / 10L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$18
tech 1% +$1
other 1% $0
world 0% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 38 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 147 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 194 +0.2% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×29.07 per $1 lost it wins $29.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses184 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)194 / 195
History coverage124d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $111 $111 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $191 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $184 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $196 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $182 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $195 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 13 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $195 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $180 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $179 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $196 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $189 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $182 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $184 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $187 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 2? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $185 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 1? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 31? Jun 01 $189 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on May 18? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 29? May 29 $184 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on May 28? May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 27? May 27 $178 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 25? May 25 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 24? May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 21? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 20? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ma May 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C or below on May 20? May 19 $176 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 17 $185 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on May 17? May 17 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on May 16? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C or higher on May 15? May 16 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 15? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 14? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on May 13? May 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 10? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 10? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 9? May 09 $84 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $111 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $191 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $184 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $196 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $182 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $195 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $108 6d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $195 6d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $180 8d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $179 9d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $196 10d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $28 11d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $189 11d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $182 12d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $59 13d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $51 13d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $184 14d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $28 15d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $160 15d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $21 16d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $50 16d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $185 17d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $22 17d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $189 19d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 20d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $184 21d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $13 22d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $178 23d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.88 · official $110.88 (match) · 423 history records