Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:24:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9E 0x9e9e…8db6 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$51 (+15%) realized +$41 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$53
crypto 36% −$1
sports 3% +$6
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +72.8% +56.3% 100% 100% +44.0%
≤30d 4 +72.8% +56.3% 100% 100% +44.0%
≤90d 16 +25.2% +13.3% 62% 62% +13.1%
all 16 +25.2% +13.3% 62% 62% +13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.3% 62% +13.1%
10% +2.5% 62% +2.2%
15% -7.4% 56% -7.6%
20% -16.5% 50% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)16 / 28
History coverage44d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 98¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+32%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 55¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 15 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 15 $2 +$2 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 11 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 11 $5 +$15 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 11 $9 +$11 +120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 10h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 72¢ $10 10h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 69¢ $10 10h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $10 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 27h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up $0 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up $1 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.99 · official $160.00 (match) · 57 history records