Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:21:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9e9b…3442 other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$91 (+0%) realized +$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 107L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$297
politics 37% −$15
sports 7% +$123
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 102 +3.4% -6.4% 11% 11% -8.4%
all 122 +2.3% -7.4% 12% 11% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 11% -8.5%
10% -16.3% 10% -17.3%
15% -24.4% 7% -25.3%
20% -31.8% 6% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$1 · ×38.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.44 per $1 lost it wins $5.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage117d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $399 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $456 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $207 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $197 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $691 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $281 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 05 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $384 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $903 −$1 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $312 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $594 +$314 +53%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $318 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 30 $313 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $363 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $323 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $340 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $662 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $308 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $356 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $373 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $289 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $355 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $275 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $475 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 18 $394 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $386 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $343 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $269 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $306 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $305 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $304 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $349 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $323 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $331 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 12 $280 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 12 $289 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 21h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 21h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 34h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $18 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $18 2d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $27 3d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $27 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 11d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 12d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 14d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 17d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $151 25d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $151 26d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $207 30d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $207 31d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $197 35d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $197 38d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $320 44d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $320 45d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $379 45d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $379 45d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $281 46d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $281 46d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $332 46d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $332 47d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $358 47d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $359 48d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $381 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.99 · official $25.99 (match) · 334 history records