Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9e9a…a9a8 sports 469 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$34,058 (+18%) realized +$17,808 · open +$16,250
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate61%267W / 172L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$393per market
Trades / day43.4pace
Fees−$1,509est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$66,600now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56,101
7 days−$37,232
14 days−$37,232
30 days−$36,487
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$4,191
other 22% +$5,529
crypto 6% +$26,366
culture 2% +$11
world 1% +$310
finance 0% −$554
politics 0% +$32
tech 0% +$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 -60.0% -63.8% 16% 12% -53.2%
≤30d 209 -56.9% -61.0% 18% 14% -51.4%
≤90d 439 +5.2% -4.8% 61% 58% -5.6%
all 439 +5.2% -4.8% 61% 58% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 58% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 57% -14.6%
15% -22.2% 51% -22.9%
20% -29.8% 36% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +62% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$264 vs −$343 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$66,600
Realized+$17,808
Unrealized+$16,250
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses267 / 172
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1,509
Open positions39
Markets (closed)439 / 469
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$393
Trades / day43.4
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 439 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 42¢ 88¢ $5,477 $11,300 +$5,823 (+106%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 84¢ $5,710 $8,095 +$2,386 (+42%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 90¢ $4,239 $7,414 +$3,176 (+75%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 88¢ $4,395 $5,748 +$1,352 (+31%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 47¢ 72¢ $3,174 $4,899 +$1,724 (+54%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $4,248 $4,557 +$309 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $4,373 $4,333 −$40 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? No 64¢ 72¢ $2,749 $3,082 +$333 (+12%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 72¢ $2,033 $2,692 +$659 (+32%)
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 82¢ $1,693 $2,045 +$352 (+21%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,990 $1,991 +$1 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 90¢ $1,557 $1,848 +$291 (+19%)
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? No 71¢ 84¢ $1,180 $1,410 +$230 (+19%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 94¢ $946 $1,130 +$184 (+19%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $887 $885 −$2 (-0%)
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? No 75¢ 90¢ $666 $792 +$127 (+19%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $698 $697 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $697 $694 −$3 (-0%)
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? Yes 58¢ 36¢ $771 $472 −$299 (-39%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 66¢ $368 $472 +$103 (+28%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 94¢ $350 $402 +$52 (+15%)
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 88¢ $331 $357 +$27 (+8%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 15¢ $693 $268 −$426 (-61%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December? No 76¢ 66¢ $304 $262 −$42 (-14%)
Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 83¢ $163 $190 +$26 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? Jun 18 $8,056 +$661 +8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? Jun 18 $70 +$1 +2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $680 −$680 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $497 +$2 +0%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $927 −$920 -99%
UC Sampdoria vs. AC Monza: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
AC Reggiana 1919 vs. Palermo FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
KFUM-Kameratene Oslo vs. Sarpsborg 08 FF: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
CD La Serena vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
CA Huracán vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Audax CS Italiano: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
FC Zlín vs. FK Teplice: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
US Catanzaro 1929 vs. Spezia Calcio: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Red Bulls vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Orlando City SC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Avaí FC vs. AA Ponte Preta: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Northampton Town FC vs. Barnsley FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Ceará SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
AZ vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
AC Reggiana 1919 vs. UC Sampdoria: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $79 −$79 -100%
Odense BK vs. Randers FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $84 −$84 -100%
FC Baník Ostrava vs. Bohemians Praha 1905: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Barnsley FC vs. Bradford City AFC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $110 −$110 -100%
Cádiz CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $95 −$95 -100%
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Real Oviedo vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Peterborough United FC vs. Port Vale FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $157 −$157 -100%
Jeju SK FC vs. FC Anyang: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $142 −$142 -100%
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $139 −$139 -100%
Leicester City FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $210 −$210 -100%
Tigres de la UANL vs. Mazatlán FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $174 −$174 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $195 −$195 -100%
Rio Ave FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $206 −$206 -100%
Nashville SC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $272 −$272 -100%
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $260 −$260 -100%
América de Cali vs. Millonarios FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $276 −$276 -100%
Genoa CFC vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $240 −$240 -100%
CD Tondela vs. CD Nacional: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $250 −$250 -100%
Paris FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $275 −$275 -100%
Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $280 −$280 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-26? Jun 16 $345 −$345 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $255 −$255 -100%
Virtus Entella vs. Calcio Padova: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $227 −$227 -100%
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $310 −$310 -100%
Cesena FC vs. UC Sampdoria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $235 −$235 -100%
RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $305 −$305 -100%
RFK Akhmat Groznyi vs. FK Baltika Kaliningrad: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $213 −$213 -100%
Stade de Reims vs. Red Star FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $370 −$370 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2,256 18m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $0 28m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $0 28m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2,155 53m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $4,306 53m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $97 56m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $407 56m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $169 57m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $72 59m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $613 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $495 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $1,518 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $331 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $48 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $4,010 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $909 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $444 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $46 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $205 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $124 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $124 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $490 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $209 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $498 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $160 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66,600.41 · official $66,599.28 (match) · 3500 history records