Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9E 0x9e97…1815 crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$12 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$23
sports 36% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +5.1% -4.9% 71% 64% -5.6%
≤30d 14 +5.1% -4.9% 71% 64% -5.6%
≤90d 14 +5.1% -4.9% 71% 64% -5.6%
all 14 +5.1% -4.9% 71% 64% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 64% -5.6%
10% -14.0% 50% -14.6%
15% -22.3% 43% -22.9%
20% -29.9% 21% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$34 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 71¢ 72¢ $71 $72 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$16 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $76 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $60 +$57 +95%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $78 −$6 -8%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $136 +$14 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $117 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $8 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 65¢ $72 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $78 35h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $72 36h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 99¢ $150 36h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 89¢ $136 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.16 · official $72.16 (match) · 39 history records