Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:18:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e96…7b13 crypto 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,221 (-36%) realized −$1,910 · open −$311
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%61W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,588now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$188
30 days−$471
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$428
crypto 22% −$207
world 19% −$456
economics 10% −$607
sports 10% −$614
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 135 -10.8% -19.3% 44% 42% -52.5%
all 136 -10.6% -19.1% 45% 43% -52.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 43% -52.5%
10% -26.9% 40% -57.1%
15% -33.9% 36% -61.2%
20% -40.4% 33% -65.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$31 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$1,588
Realized−$1,910
Unrealized−$311
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses61 / 75
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions7
Markets (closed)136 / 143
History coverage116d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $645 $691 +$46 (+7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $342 $315 −$27 (-8%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $355 $217 −$138 (-39%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $210 $199 −$10 (-5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $99 $82 −$17 (-17%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $99 $76 −$23 (-23%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $150 $8 −$141 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 03 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 03 $66 −$66 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $86 −$86 -100%
US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31? Jun 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $34 −$34 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 26 $439 −$419 -95%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 12 $494 −$77 -16%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 10 $599 −$599 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 08 $663 −$65 -10%
Epstein client list released by June 30? May 04 $11 −$8 -76%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in April? Apr 30 $100 −$99 -99%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in April? Apr 30 $110 −$107 -98%
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 26 $1 +$1 +79%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 26 $40 −$33 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 26 $33 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 26 $85 −$30 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 26 $60 −$13 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 26 $50 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 26 $8 −$7 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 26 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 26 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 26 $40 +$27 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 26 $40 −$21 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 26 $45 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 26 $40 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 26 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 26 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 26 $20 +$13 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 26 $6 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 26 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 26 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 26 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 26 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 26 $11 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 25 $1 +$1 +87%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $43 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 4¢ $72 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 4¢ $154 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $186 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $311 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $5 25d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $35 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $2 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $105 30d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $42 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 1¢ $5 31d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 3¢ $439 32d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 3¢ $12 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $66 33d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 1¢ $66 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 4¢ $86 34d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 34d
US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $14 34d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $156 36d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $34 36d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 1¢ $34 38d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $99 45d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 6¢ $26 45d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 9¢ $211 45d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 6¢ $4 46d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $663 46d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $417 46d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $494 47d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,588.45 · official $1,588.45 (match) · 363 history records