Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:38:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

9E 0x9e94…3be6 crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$37 (+7%) realized +$39 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip

Net edge-27%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate62%13W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$23per market

Trades / day40.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)-14.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-5.6%	-14.6%	62%	52%	-11.5%
≤30d	21	-5.6%	-14.6%	62%	52%	-11.5%
≤90d	21	-5.6%	-14.6%	62%	52%	-11.5%
all	21	-5.6%	-14.6%	62%	52%	-11.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover40.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-14.6%	52%	-11.5%
10% ← realistic here	-22.7%	43%	-20.0%
15%	-30.2%	33%	-27.7%
20%	-37.0%	19%	-34.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

15% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -47% → late +32% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$17 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.92 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$8

Realized+$39

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses13 / 8

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage1d

Avg bet$23

Trades / day40.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	34¢	28¢	$10	$8	−$2 (-16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Jun 21	$46	+$18	+39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Jun 21	$26	+$1	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Jun 21	$25	+$7	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 21	$21	+$4	+17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Jun 21	$41	+$9	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Jun 21	$35	+$17	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Jun 21	$8	+$10	+120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Jun 21	$12	+$8	+65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Jun 21	$10	+$6	+60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Jun 21	$10	+$5	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Jun 21	$43	−$24	-55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Jun 21	$16	−$16	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Jun 21	$18	−$17	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Jun 21	$64	−$64	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 21	$68	+$32	+47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Jun 21	$29	+$9	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Jun 21	$5	$0	-1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Jun 21	$5	$0	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$10	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$30	5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$15	7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	SELL Down	36¢	$27	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	BUY Down	32¢	$26	12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Down	78¢	$25	22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$10	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	SELL Up	37¢	$10	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$10	27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$41	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$30	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$4	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$18	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$4	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$4	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$12	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$10	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$5	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Down	92¢	$9	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	SELL Up	17¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$34	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	SELL Down	2¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$18	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	BUY Down	13¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$64	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$64	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$43	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	SELL Up	46¢	$35	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.38 · official $14.85 · 54 history records