Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:22:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e94…fc93 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-6%) realized −$12 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%23W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$26
14 days−$29
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$49
sports 6% +$2
crypto 4% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +24.6% +12.7% 62% 46% +8.4%
≤30d 43 +2.8% -7.0% 53% 42% -10.1%
≤90d 43 +2.8% -7.0% 53% 42% -10.1%
all 43 +2.8% -7.0% 53% 42% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 42% -10.1%
10% -15.9% 35% -18.7%
15% -24.1% 28% -26.6%
20% -31.5% 23% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses23 / 20
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)43 / 56
History coverage18d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $84 $101 +$17 (+21%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? No 77¢ 56¢ $57 $41 −$16 (-28%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 44¢ $30 $24 −$5 (-18%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 22¢ $8 $15 +$7 (+84%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $18 $4 −$14 (-77%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 28¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-43%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 4¢ $30 $3 −$27 (-90%)
Türkiye leading at halftime? Yes 35¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 +$7 +64%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 +$7 +73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 +$6 +150%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $13 −$2 -18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$8 +60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$7 +112%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $27 $0 -0%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +485%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $13 −$10 -74%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $13 −$11 -80%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -97%
Patrik Schick: 1+ shots Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Iqraam Rayners: 1+ shots Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 10 $8 $0 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 09 $11 $0 +2%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $70 +$10 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $19 +$7 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $20 +$5 +24%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 06 $4 −$3 -80%
Will Lennart Kahl score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $34 +$7 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $7 −$2 -29%
Will David Raya record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Ahmed Fathi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $13 +$8 +64%
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $34 +$1 +4%
Will Pau Cubarsí score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $11 +$6 +53%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $9 −$3 -32%
Will Tahith Chong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $11 +$4 +38%
Will Haissem Hassan score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $11 +$4 +34%
Will Ibrahim Sangaré score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $11 +$4 +32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Niclas Füllkrug be included in Germany's official 2026 World Cup Jun 02 $154 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 77¢ $33 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $33 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 77¢ $24 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $25 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 1h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 32¢ $5 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 21¢ $5 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $11 9h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 43h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $15 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $23 2d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $18 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 11¢ $8 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $16 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 AND BUY 5¢ $10 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 AND BUY 5¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 37¢ $11 5d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $23 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.80 · official $207.80 · 185 history records