Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:21:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9E 0x9e94…8953 other 45 markets active 3h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$280 (-2%) realized −$277 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%40W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$7
14 days+$18
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$23
other 22% −$247
tech 10% +$11
world 7% +$7
politics 3% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 21 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 32 -2.3% -11.6% 94% 0% -13.1%
all 42 -1.7% -11.0% 95% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -11.3%
10% -19.6% 0% -19.8%
15% -27.3% 0% -27.5%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$749) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$178 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized−$277
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses40 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage133d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $164 $164 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $370 end of June? No 99¢ 97¢ $146 $143 −$3 (-2%)
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 96¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 19? Jun 19 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 19? Jun 19 $76 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 19? Jun 19 $109 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, Jun 16 $111 +$6 +5%
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $106 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $169 +$4 +2%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading Jun 12 $148 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $156 +$4 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $116 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $2.00? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $7.50? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $8.00? Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $87 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $121 +$4 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $207 +$2 +1%
Will Chainlink dip to $2 in May? Jun 01 $109 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $117 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in May? May 30 $320 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $319 +$1 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in May? May 20 $335 −$269 -80%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.25 Week of May 11 May 15 $160 +$3 +2%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.50 Week of May 11 May 15 $165 +$3 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $172 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $232 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of May 4 2026? May 08 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5 May 03 $408 −$86 -21%
Will XRP dip to $1.15 on May 1? May 02 $407 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 01 $816 +$3 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 April 13-19? Apr 20 $811 +$4 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 April 6-12? Apr 13 $809 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 08 $806 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 22 $785 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 4? Mar 05 $785 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 3? Mar 04 $749 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 1? Mar 03 $769 +$1 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $761 +$7 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 28 $791 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 9-15? Feb 26 $783 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 9? Feb 10 $749 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 2-8? Feb 09 $85 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 February 2-8? Feb 09 $699 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $164 2h
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $370 end of June? BUY No 99¢ $146 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $76 3d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $109 3d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $149 3d
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $106 7d
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 7d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, BUY No 95¢ $111 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $42 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $60 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $42 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 9d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $156 12d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 99¢ $148 12d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $8.00? BUY No 100¢ $22 15d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $2.00? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 15d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $7.50? BUY No 100¢ $50 15d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $101 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 97¢ $121 17d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 17d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $116 17d
Will Chainlink dip to $2 in May? BUY No 100¢ $109 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $117 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $35 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $22 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $32 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $28 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $314.86 · official $313.99 (match) · 113 history records