Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9e8f…4ca9 crypto 48 markets active 8h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$199 (+1%) realized +$192 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%45W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$418per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,032now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$65
economics 15% +$16
tech 13% +$31
finance 6% +$13
world 5% +$7
other 4% +$53
politics 2% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 3 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -7.8%
≤90d 12 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
all 46 +1.1% -8.6% 98% 2% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 2% -8.6%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×6.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×288.3 per $1 lost it wins $288.3
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$1,032
Realized+$192
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses45 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage238d
Avg bet$418
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $517 $517 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $509 $515 +$6 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 15 $127 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $128 +$3 +2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 24 $998 +$19 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 05 $987 +$12 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $981 +$6 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 07 $972 +$7 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 23 above $205? Apr 07 $269 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of March? Apr 07 $119 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 end of March? Mar 31 $88 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,600 on the final trading day of March 20 Mar 30 $501 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 16-22? Mar 24 $970 +$2 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 21 $963 +$7 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 9-15? Mar 16 $526 +$6 +1%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 15 $421 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $522 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,500 on March 8? Mar 10 $446 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,500 on March 8? Mar 09 $75 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 February 16-22? Feb 21 $271 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 16-22? Feb 21 $149 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 February 9-15? Feb 19 $261 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 9-15? Feb 19 $419 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.90 February 9-15? Feb 12 $157 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on February 11? Feb 10 $415 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on February 9? Feb 09 $414 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 February 2-8? Feb 09 $413 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 February 2-8? Feb 08 $412 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on February 7? Feb 08 $411 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on February 4? Feb 05 $411 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 30 $402 +$8 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Jan 27 $402 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 me Jan 23 $399 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $390 +$9 +2%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 27 $338 +$52 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 04 $325 +$14 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? Nov 19 $323 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? Nov 16 $322 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on November 1 Nov 13 $321 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 10? Nov 11 $321 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 6? Nov 06 $320 +$1 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 06 $320 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on October Nov 02 $310 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100,000 on October 29? Oct 30 $309 $0 +0%
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? Oct 27 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on October Oct 24 $299 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on October 22? Oct 24 $297 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 22? Oct 21 $295 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $517 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $129 21h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $257 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 97¢ $128 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $128 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $127 10d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $127 11d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $1,018 17d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,018 22d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 98¢ $998 42d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? BUY No 99¢ $987 62d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $987 62d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $981 70d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of March? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 77d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of March? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 77d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of March? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 77d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of March? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 77d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of March? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 77d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 end of March? SELL No 100¢ $88 77d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,600 on the final trading day of March 20 SELL No 100¢ $503 78d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 23 above $205? SELL No 100¢ $270 81d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,600 on the final trading day of March 20 BUY No 100¢ $501 82d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 23 above $205? BUY No 100¢ $269 82d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 end of March? BUY No 99¢ $88 82d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of March? BUY Yes 100¢ $119 82d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL Yes 100¢ $11 82d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL Yes 100¢ $2 82d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL Yes 100¢ $30 82d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL Yes 100¢ $1 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,032.33 · official $1,032.33 (match) · 182 history records