Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:48:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9E 0x9e8e…8db8 other 636 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (219 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$92,581 (+61%) realized +$94,139 · open −$1,558
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate72%302W / 115L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day218.5pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$63,301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$1,282
other 36% +$4,866
culture 7% +$1,595
sports 5% +$2,559
tech 3% −$520
world 2% +$759
crypto 2% +$129
finance 0% +$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (219 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 323 +16.6% +5.5% 73% 25% +0.7%
≤30d 417 +23.9% +12.1% 72% 28% +3.3%
≤90d 417 +23.9% +12.1% 72% 28% +3.3%
all 417 +23.9% +12.1% 72% 28% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover218.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.1% 28% +3.3%
10% ← realistic here +1.4% 18% -6.6%
15% -8.4% 16% -15.6%
20% -17.4% 13% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$21 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.06 per $1 lost it wins $5.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$63,301
Realized+$94,139
Unrealized−$1,558
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses302 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions278
Markets (closed)417 / 636
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$237
Trades / day218.5
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 278 History 417 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 84¢ $9,250 $15,586 +$6,336 (+68%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? No 47¢ 74¢ $1,932 $3,027 +$1,095 (+57%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $9,250 $2,914 −$6,336 (-68%)
Will Ed Sheeran perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 94¢ 99¢ $2,121 $2,238 +$117 (+6%)
Will Taylor Swift perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,778 $1,845 +$67 (+4%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? No 24¢ 73¢ $529 $1,629 +$1,099 (+208%)
Will J Balvin perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 88¢ 96¢ $1,421 $1,539 +$118 (+8%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1,395 $1,402 +$8 (+1%)
Will Bad Bunny perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 93¢ 96¢ $1,313 $1,353 +$40 (+3%)
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 61¢ 61¢ $1,242 $1,251 +$9 (+1%)
Will Rosalía perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 94¢ 96¢ $1,128 $1,152 +$24 (+2%)
Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $830 $842 +$13 (+2%)
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? No 80¢ 91¢ $731 $830 +$99 (+14%)
Will Myke Towers perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 86¢ 97¢ $659 $741 +$82 (+12%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? No 55¢ 99¢ $402 $724 +$322 (+80%)
Will Davido perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 88¢ 98¢ $629 $701 +$72 (+11%)
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 55¢ 52¢ $686 $653 −$33 (-5%)
Will Tems perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 85¢ 99¢ $561 $650 +$89 (+16%)
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 19¢ 77¢ $158 $643 +$485 (+307%)
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 76¢ 72¢ $665 $638 −$27 (-4%)
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 43¢ 42¢ $617 $609 −$8 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? No 76¢ 90¢ $463 $548 +$86 (+19%)
Will SZA perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 79¢ 98¢ $431 $532 +$101 (+24%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $517 $531 +$14 (+3%)
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? No 47¢ 66¢ $374 $524 +$151 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1,260 +$13 +1%
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? Jun 17 $177 +$273 +154%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $659 +$45 +7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Jun 17 $29 −$27 -94%
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Jun 17 $4,524 +$522 +12%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $64 −$55 -85%
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump praise Emmanuel Macron by June 30? Jun 17 $8 +$6 +79%
Will Nicolás Tagliafico be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $75 +$2 +2%
Will Valentín Barco be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $19 +$2 +8%
Will Thiago Almada be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Lionel Messi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $2 $0 +15%
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $43 +$65 +152%
Will Gerónimo Rulli be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $22 +$2 +11%
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $32 +$6 +19%
Will Giuliano Simeone be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +75%
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $15 −$10 -63%
Will Rodrigo De Paul be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $91 +$9 +9%
Will Leandro Paredes be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $23 +$3 +11%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in June? Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Marco Rubio attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $2 $0 -13%
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? Jun 17 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Traitor" this week? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Memory" this week? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $305 +$4 +2%
Will William Saliba be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $54 +$6 +11%
Will Marcus Thuram be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $55 +$3 +5%
Will Warren Zaïre-Emery be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $19 +$3 +15%
Will Ibrahima Konaté be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will Lucas Digne be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $31 +$3 +9%
Will Rayan Cherki be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will N'Golo Kanté be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $86 +$5 +6%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? Jun 16 $3 $0 +11%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 3 weeks? Jun 16 $24 +$63 +265%
Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $24 +$2 +8%
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $33 +$27 +82%
Will Trump say "Washington" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jennifer Lopez perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime Jun 16 $46 +$2 +4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $1,166 +$18 +2%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 16 $11 $0 +3%
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 16 $146 +$79 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI BUY No 48¢ $68 9m
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu SELL No 76¢ $63 30m
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 88¢ $1 43m
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 88¢ $25 44m
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 88¢ $18 2h
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 88¢ $0 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 18¢ $18 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 3h
Will Trump say “Thank You” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 97¢ $5 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 29¢ $42 3h
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? BUY No 94¢ $20 3h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 73¢ $219 3h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 74¢ $296 3h
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FI SELL No 71¢ $1 3h
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FI SELL No 71¢ $4 4h
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FI SELL No 71¢ $5 4h
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? BUY No 96¢ $19 4h
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FI SELL No 71¢ $5 4h
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 5h
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp BUY No 98¢ $20 5h
Will "Home" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY No 62¢ $8 5h
Will "Heart" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY No 62¢ $3 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 77¢ $85 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 5h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 85¢ $14 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 5h
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp BUY No 98¢ $7 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63,301.44 · official $63,301.38 (match) · 3500 history records