Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:24:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9e8e…82e8 crypto 265 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+0%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%253W / 10L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$63
other 19% −$7
economics 7% −$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 23 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 54 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 263 +0.3% -9.2% 96% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.29 per $1 lost it wins $6.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses253 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)263 / 265
History coverage250d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 29? No 99¢ 100¢ $167 $168 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 29? No 100¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? Jun 26 $202 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 25? Jun 25 $86 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 25? Jun 25 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 23? Jun 23 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 19? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 19? Jun 19 $158 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 16? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 9? Jun 09 $188 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $120 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $198 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 2? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 31? Jun 01 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? May 28 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? May 26 $184 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 May 18-24? May 25 $66 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.90 May 18-24? May 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 May 18-24? May 25 $68 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 22? May 22 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 19? May 19 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? May 15 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 14? May 14 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on May 8? May 08 $176 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? May 07 $183 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 02 $196 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $196 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 25? Apr 25 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 20? Apr 21 $195 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 13-19? Apr 20 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 17? Apr 18 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 16? Apr 17 $152 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 13? Apr 16 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 15? Apr 16 $194 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 April 6-12? Apr 13 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? Apr 10 $193 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $193 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $193 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 2? Apr 05 $193 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $167 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $202 24h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $86 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $115 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $200 6d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $43 9d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $158 9d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $200 9d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $200 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 11d
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 14d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $150 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $200 17d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $64 20d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $20 20d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $104 20d
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $5 20d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $120 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $5 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $198 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $198 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $198 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $4 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $16 24d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $137 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $48 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $184 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $184 31d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $66 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.24 · official $202.24 (match) · 633 history records