Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:07:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9E 0x9e8e…0be0 crypto 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$148 (+8%) realized +$148 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate60%21W / 14L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days+$87
14 days+$87
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$15
crypto 31% +$30
other 4% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +14.1% +3.3% 62% 56% -4.9%
≤30d 34 +14.1% +3.3% 62% 56% -4.9%
≤90d 34 +14.1% +3.3% 62% 56% -4.9%
all 35 +10.9% +0.3% 60% 54% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 54% -5.4%
10% -9.3% 49% -14.5%
15% -18.1% 46% -22.8%
20% -26.1% 43% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$48 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$148
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses21 / 14
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage133d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $73 −$45 -61%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$51 +101%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $62 −$60 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $204 −$89 -44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $208 +$219 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $104 +$100 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$50 -94%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $33 +$36 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$21 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$60 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$11 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$8 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +29%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $46 +$6 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$16 +106%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$9 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 21¢ $28 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $73 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $62 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $304 30h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $115 42h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $204 44h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $208 47h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $33 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records