Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e89…673e other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%7W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$27
politics 26% −$6
sports 9% −$3
economics 6% −$2
tech 5% +$8
crypto 1% −$18
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 25% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 27 +0.0% -9.5% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 41 -3.2% -12.4% 17% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -9.8%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$544) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses7 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage234d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $115 $115 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $109 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $112 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $111 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $108 +$4 +4%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,007 −$8 -1%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,010 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,011 −$2 -0%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 06 $1,012 −$2 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,015 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $1,018 −$3 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 30 $110 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $541 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 10 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 10 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 10 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $545 −$1 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 10 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $546 −$1 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Apr 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? Apr 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 06 $57 +$1 +1%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 01 $39 $0 +1%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)? Feb 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 17 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 30 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 30 $15 +$1 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $182 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 16 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 6? Dec 21 $18 −$18 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 21 $25 −$11 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $115 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $115 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $111 18d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $109 19d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $109 20d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $112 20d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $112 20d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $111 20d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $111 20d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 100¢ $112 28d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 96¢ $108 40d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $998 53d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,007 53d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,006 53d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,008 53d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,008 53d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,010 53d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,010 53d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,011 53d
Netanyahu out by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $1,011 53d
Netanyahu out by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $1,012 53d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,013 53d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,015 53d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $1,015 53d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $1,018 53d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 99¢ $110 58d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $110 72d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $540 79d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $541 79d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $541 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.77 · official $114.77 (match) · 97 history records